BASKING RIDGE, N.J. – Although many security experts predict that the most likely data breach threats organizations will face in 2013 include cloud exploits, mobile device attacks and all-out cyber war, “Verizon Data Breach Investigations Report” (DBIR) researchers have reached a far different conclusion: The most likely threats involve authentication attacks and failures, continued espionage and “hacktivism” attacks, Web application exploits and social engineering.
The findings of the researchers — members of the company’s RISK (Research Intelligence Solutions Knowledge) Team – are based on data that spans eight years and thousands of cases and is contained in the 2012 data breach report, released earlier this year.
”Many security experts are using anecdote and opinion for their predictions, whereas Verizon’s researchers are applying empirical evidence to help enterprises focus on what will be truly important in the coming year — and also what isn’t,” said Wade Baker, principal author of the DBIR.
“First and foremost, we don’t believe there will be an all-out cyber war, although it’s possible,” he said. “Rather, an enterprise’s 2013 data breach is much more likely to result from low-and-slow attacks.”
Verizon’s RISK team has identified the following most likely data threats:
- Topping the list – with a 90 percent change of probability — are attacks and failures related to authentication, including vulnerable or stolen usernames and passwords, which often represent the initial events in a breach scenario. “Nine out of 10 intrusions involved compromised identifies or authentication systems, so enterprises need to make sure they have a sound process for creating, managing and monitoring user accounts and credentials for all of their systems, devices and networks,” Baker said.
- Web application exploits which are most likely to affect larger organizations and especially governments, rather than small to medium-sized businesses. The chances of such attacks occurring are three in four, according to the data compiled by the RISK Team. “Given these odds, organizations that choose to take their chances and ignore secure application development and assessment practices in 2013 are asking for trouble,” said Baker.
- Social engineering, which targets people rather than machines and relies on clever — and sometimes clumsy — deceptions to be successful. “The use of social tactics like phishing increases by a factor of three for larger enterprises and governments,” said Baker. “It’s impossible to eliminate all human error or weaknesses from an organization, but vigilance and education across the employee population help to control and contain such schemes.”
Baker also said that targeted attacks from adversaries motivated by espionage and hacktivism — breaking into a computer system, for a politically or socially motivated purpose — will continue to occur, so “it’s critical to be watchful on this front.”
In addition, the RISK team does not foresee the failure of an organization’s cloud technology or configuration as being the root cause of a breach. However, an organization’s service provider could inadvertently increase the likelihood of a breach by failing to take appropriate actions or taking inappropriate ones.
As for mobile devices, the Verizon researchers believe that lost and stolen – and unencrypted — mobile devices will continue to far exceed hacks and malware.
The RISK Team also projects that attacks on mobile devices by the criminal world will follow closely the push to mobile payments in the business and consumer world. “There’s a good chance we’ll see this shift in 2013, but our researchers think mobile devices as a breach vector in larger enterprises will lag beyond 2013,” Baker said.
Large organizations tend to pride themselves on their security strategy and accompanying plans, but the reality is that a large business is less likely to discover a breach itself than being notified by law enforcement. “And, if you do discover it yourself,” Baker said, “chances are it will be by accident.” He concluded:
“Keep in mind that all of these breaches can still be an issue for enterprises. However, what we’re saying is that they’re over-hyped according to our historical data and are far less likely to factor into an organization’s next breach than is commonly thought.”
Its nice to see that they try to paint a picture of what might actually happen. Their insight is not just their research, I am sure there is some influence from the agencies. Verizon works closely with several agencies, and may add some of that data into their report as well.
You can look at the data that is laid out on the table and look at the attacks and say – yeah thats a strong possibility, that one too. But look at what the Feds are doing to thwart some of these. As cyber criminals are getting caught and given pretty hefty sentences, some of these potential avenues of attacks, extortion or otherwise are going to dry up.
All the reoprt tells me is that verizon is playing the guessing game in a safe way. Its like the weather – if the pattern remains the same, expect more of it. Big business has a LOT to do with this – as more Apps are made easy to use on mobile devices making it a lucrative path for theft of these devices. Grab someone’s phone. Scan in bogus checks, transfer that cash to a 3rd party financial establishment or western union account. Banks are a big business with Trillions of dollars a year to be made on a technology thats getting easier to use – and break into. It starts at the top. If poor security practices happen there, they will trickle down.
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Authentication issues related to username password combos used on different sites and exploited by crackers and hackers isn’t going away any time soon. Poorly written web applications are also not going to change overnight, and for some organizations may never change and they will be vulnerable for quite some time. Social Engineering is always going to be an issue as long as people have the sense of compassion that overrides following the rules.
Most of the issues can be controlled by written policies and policies on the network as well. Companies either do not understand the ways of traditional security practices and what it takes to make them secure. They need to hire a service that can go into an organiztion, do a decent scan of the network, interview the secretaries and help desk and give a detailed, easy to read report that a CEO or owner can comprehend. Paying for something up front, and writing it off at the end of the year – instead of paying a fine to the government and potentially other organizations for failure to comply.
In any organization, its about due care and due diligence. If revenue is an organization’s only motive – corruption and carelessness will eventually come into play.
There are plenty of organizations that probably have not been attacked. With pressure from big business, the Feds are being pushed into action and beef up their investigation of the breaches. With major Anonymous hackers getting arrested, you cannot tell me the others are not putting their tail between their legs and wondering when their front door will be busted in. Then you have the ego-testical groups chiming in as one group takes a hit. Those are only motivated to take over the limelight until they too are caught. They fall victim to their own self-inflicted social engineering – hack and brag – and they soon will find themselves in a cell next to someone they knew online.
Whats this report do for the average organization? Anything? Its a guess along with anything else. The report my get them some limelight, but if it comes from an organization that has issues itself with hyped up billing issues, overages and other issues…. People who see the verizon name or logo/brand simply will ignore it. It should come from another name/entity and people may read it. For what its worth – it is still a crap shoot to guess what flavor of attack is on the horizon.